​The inaugural auction for offshore wind development rights in the Gulf of Mexico, a significant milestone in the green energy agenda of the U.S. Biden administration, has not garnered the expected level of interest. This unexpected turn of events has sparked a discussion about the long-term prospects of offshore wind energy development in the U.S. and, more broadly, the future of the renewable energy sector. This article delves into the reasons behind this setback and explores whether it is a transient issue or indicative of a more enduring trend.

The Disappointing Outcome

The auction for offshore wind development rights, touted as a historic event in the U.S. President Joe Biden's green energy agenda, was far from successful. The 102,480-acre area off Louisiana attracted a single bid of $5.6 million, while two other leases in the Gulf of Mexico received no bids at all. This lacklustre response has raised eyebrows and questions about the feasibility and attractiveness of offshore wind development in this region.

Factors Influencing the Low Interest

Several factors have contributed to the tepid response to the Gulf of Mexico leases. The Gulf waters, unlike their counterparts in the U.S. Northeast coast, are shallower, more congested, have lower overall wind speeds, and are prone to regular hurricane risks. These physical challenges, coupled with lower local power market prices, have deterred potential wind farm developers.

Moreover, the high average cost of power generated from offshore sites, which can be twice the cost of that from a gas-fired plant, makes the prospect of offshore wind development less appealing. The lack of state policies supporting offshore wind development, especially in Texas, further complicates the situation.

The Role of State Policies and Market Forces

The role of state policies and market forces in shaping the renewable energy market cannot be overstated. While New York and New Jersey have passed state laws mandating utilities to buy certain amounts of power from offshore projects, thereby guaranteeing earnings for wind developers, no such policies exist in the Gulf Coast states. This disparity has a direct impact on the level of interest shown by developers in the offshore wind leases in these regions.

The Impact on the Green Energy Agenda

The lacklustre response to the Gulf of Mexico leases is a setback for the green energy agenda, but it also provides valuable insights into the challenges and realities of the renewable energy sector. It is evident that wind developers are cautious about the U.S. project potential, despite the incentives offered in the Inflation Reduction Act to support green energy supply development.

Moreover, the absence of bids for the leases off the coast of Texas could be a blow to energy planners who were counting on offshore wind farms to help the state transition away from fossil fuels1. This development could potentially slow down the momentum of the energy sector development in the U.S., which is already grappling with rising materials and labour costs.

The Potential for Green Hydrogen Production

Despite the challenges, the Gulf of Mexico region could still play a pivotal role in the green energy sector, particularly in the production of green hydrogen. Green hydrogen, which can be produced using renewable power, can act as a source of energy for refiners and chemical plants looking to decarbonise1.

The oil and chemical industries in Texas and Louisiana, major potential consumers of green hydrogen, may now face difficulties in securing the quantities of green hydrogen they need. In the long run, these industries could look for ways to support the wind sector's development.

The Need for Additional Incentives

The outcome of the Gulf of Mexico auctions highlights the need for additional incentives to lure wind power developers to the area. The U.S. administration, along with key stakeholders along the Gulf Coast, will need to devise strategies to attract developers and maintain the momentum of the energy sector development.

The possibility of a power purchase mandate, similar to that in New York and New Jersey, could be considered. However, this proposal is likely to face resistance from the large and influential oil and chemical industries in Texas and Louisiana, who may oppose any power cost increases that could undermine their competitiveness.

The Global Headwinds Facing the Offshore Wind Sector

The challenges facing the offshore wind sector are not confined to the Gulf of Mexico. Rising materials and labour costs have driven up project development expenditures globally, forcing some developers to cancel or renegotiate power contracts in other regions. This has made many players in the industry hesitant to expand into markets without a clear path to profitability.

These global headwinds were evident in the Gulf auctions, where 15 companies, including global giants with major wind divisions like Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies, had been qualified to make bids but chose not to. This hesitancy could hinder the expansion of the offshore wind sector in the Gulf of Mexico.

The Way Forward

Despite the initial setback, there is still potential for offshore wind development in the Gulf of Mexico. Many of the major companies that did not bid in the auction are already building out offshore capacity elsewhere in the U.S., and they may revisit the Gulf of Mexico as a potential expansion area in the future.

However, this will require concerted efforts from the Biden administration and key stakeholders along the Gulf Coast to devise additional incentives and strategies to attract wind power developers to the area. The urgency of global energy transition efforts adds to the importance of these measures.

Conclusion

The outcome of the Gulf of Mexico offshore wind tender is a stark reminder of the complex challenges and realities of the renewable energy sector. While the lack of interest in the auction is a setback for the green energy agenda, it also provides valuable insights into the factors influencing the development of the offshore wind sector. The way forward will require a rethinking of state policies, the creation of additional incentives, and a concerted effort to address the global headwinds facing the industry.